The following chart is WTI price. Red line is the price of 2026 (Iran war), and the purple one is that of 2022 (Russo-Ukrainian War). We expect the first peak of WTI has been reached.
The start date of the Russia-Ukraine war was February 24, 2022, while the start date of the Iran war was February 28, 2026. The peak increases of WTI in both wars were similar, and the peak occurrence times were also close. Based on the trend of WTI prices during the Russia-Ukraine war, it can be inferred that the first peak of WTI prices during the Iran war has occurred, at around 100. Under the current situation of the war, WTI prices fluctuate with news, and 82-89 should be the relatively lowe price range.
The subsequent peak situation needs to be evaluated based on the war situation, such as capturing Kharg Island where 90% of Iran's crude oil is exported, and attacking the Strait of Hormuz, etc.
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